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Lookup NU author(s): Justin Sheffield,
Professor Enda O'Connell,
Dr Andrew Metcalfe
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Key issues involved in converting MTB ensemble forecasts of rainfall into ensemble forecasts of runoff are addressed. The physically-based distributed modelling system, SHETRAN, is parameterised for the Brue catchment, and used to assess the impact of averaging spatially variable MTB rainfall inputs on the accuracy of simulated runoff response. Averaging is found to have little impact for wet antecedent conditions and to lead to some underestimation of peak discharge under dry catchment conditions. The simpler ARNO modelling system is also parameterised for the Brue and SHETRAN and ARNO calibration and validation results are found to be similar. Ensemble forecasts of runoff generated using both SHETRAN and the simpler ARNO modelling system are compared. The ensemble is more spread out with the SHETRAN model, and a likely explanation is that the ARNO model introduces too much smoothing. Nevertheless, the forecasting performance of the simpler model could be adequate for flood warning purposes.
Author(s): Mellor D, Sheffield J, O'Connell PE, Metcalfe AV
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN (print): 1027-5606
ISSN (electronic): 1607-7938
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH