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Reliability-based sensitivity analysis of ships

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Jonathan Downes, Dr Yongchang Pu

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Abstract

Failure of a ship hull girder is a very important failure mode, which is normally catastrophic and has severe consequences. It is of great importance to predict accurately the ultimate strength of a hull girder so that an adequate but not excessive safety margin for this failure can be ensured in the ship design. This study proposes a method for reliability-based analysis of the ultimate strength of a hull girder. The reliability method is interactively integrated with progressive collapse analysis so that the uncertainties in individual random variables relating to the prediction of the ultimate strength of a hull girder can be accurately considered in reliability analysis and that sensitivity factors of these random variables can be probabilistically evaluated. The ultimate strength will be evaluated using a progressive collapse analysis methodology with the appropriate individual element stress-strain curves derived interactively. The method is applied to two example structures and the sensitivities of the reliability to the random variables are presented. © IMechE 2005.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Downes J, Pu Y

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment

Year: 2005

Volume: 219

Issue: 1

Pages: 11-23

Print publication date: 01/02/2005

ISSN (print): 1475-0902

ISSN (electronic): 2041-3084

Publisher: Professional Engineering Publishing

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1243/147509005X10468

DOI: 10.1243/147509005X10468

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