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Lookup NU author(s): Professor Richard Boys,
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Stochastic compartmental models of the SEIR type are often used to make inferences on epidemic processes from partially observed data in which only removal times are available. For many epidemics, the assumption of constant removal rates is not plausible. We develop methods for models in which these rates are a time-dependent step function. A reversible jump MCMC algorithm is described that permits Bayesian inferences to be made on model parameters, particularly those associated with the step function. The method is applied to two datasets on outbreaks of smallpox and a respiratory disease. The analyses highlight the importance of allowing for time dependence by contrasting the predictive distributions for the removal times and comparing them with the observed data. © Springer-Verlag 2007.
Author(s): Boys RJ, Giles PR
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Journal of Mathematical Biology
Print publication date: 01/08/2007
ISSN (print): 0303-6812
ISSN (electronic): 1432-1416
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