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Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Chris Kilsby, Professor Enda O'Connell


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Regression models are developed to predict point rainfall statistics, with potential application to downscaling general circulation model (GCM) output for future climates. The models can be used to predict the mean daily rainfall amount and the proportion of dry days for each calendar month at any site in England and Wales, and use the following explanatory variables: (i) geographical (altitude, geographic coordinates, and distance from nearest coast); and (ii) atmospheric circulation variables (mean values of air-flow indices derived from mean sea-level pressure grids). Values predicted by the models, for 10-km grid squares covering the whole of England and Wales, are in reasonable agreement with the 1961-1990 climatology of Barrow et al. (1993). The potential use of the models in hydrological climate change impact studies is discussed. (C) 1998 Royal Meteorological Society.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Kilsby CG, Cowpertwait PSP, O'Connell PE, Jones PD

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: International Journal of Climatology

Year: 1998

Volume: 18

Issue: 5

Pages: 523-539

Print publication date: 01/04/1998

ISSN (print): 0899-8418

ISSN (electronic): 1097-0088

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.


DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199804)18:5<523::AID-JOC268>3.0.CO;2-X


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