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Lookup NU author(s): Professor Richard DawsonORCiD, Professor Jim Hall, Dr Mike Walkden
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The aim of the modelling and risk analysis work described in this paper is to support coastal flood management on a broad scale over extended timescales. In pursuit of strategic broad scale analysis we have coupled a systems model of shoreline evolution with a reliability model of dike systems. The reliability analysis is driven by joint probability distributions of loading distributions, but long term morphological pre-dictions mediate in the analysis of dyke reliability. A rapid flood inundation model is employed to generate flood risk estimates in the hinterland. Results from an ongoing case study in the UK are presented. The study area comprises soft cliffs updrift of a large floodplain. This stretch of coastline carries a legacy of engineer-ing intervention; the floodplain is defended by a series of sand dunes and sea walls, whilst long stretches of the cliff have toe protection. The impacts on flood risk caused by management interventions at the cliff toe can be quantified for different climate change scenarios. In systems of this complexity the effects of climate change on flood risk may be difficult to interpret. Broad-scale integrated modelling tools of the type de-scribed in this paper are required to understand these interactions and enable comprehensive analysis of man-agement options and through appropriate interfaces and visualisation facilitate stakeholder engagement.
Author(s): Dawson RJ, Hall JW, Nicholls RJ, Bates PD, Dickson ME, Walkden MJA
Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)
Publication status: Unknown
Conference Name: International Symposium on Stochastic Hydraulics
Year of Conference: 2005
