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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Peter Mumby, Emeritus Professor Alasdair Edwards
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Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2 degrees C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef- associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled- up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral- dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.
Author(s): Hoegh-Guldberg O, Mumby PJ, Hooten AJ, Steneck RS, Greenfield P, Gomez E, Harvell CD, Sale PF, Edwards AJ, Caldeira K, Knowlton N, Eakin CM, Iglesias-Prieto R, Muthiga N, Bradbury RH, Dubi A, Hatziolos ME
Publication type: Review
Publication status: Published
Journal: Science
Year: 2007
Volume: 318
Issue: 5857
Pages: 1737-1742
ISSN (print): 0036-8075
ISSN (electronic): 1095-9203
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1152509
DOI: 10.1126/science.1152509
