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Implications of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Hayley Fowler, Professor Chris Kilsby

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Abstract

Future projections from climate models and recent observations show a worldwide increase in both the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, coinciding with widespread flooding and landslides in Europe. It is estimated, using regional frequency analysis, that the magnitude of extreme rainfall has increased two-fold over parts of the UK since the 1960s. Intensities previously experienced, on average, every 25 years now occur at 6 year intervals; a consequence of both increased event frequency and changes in seasonality. These climatic changes may be explained by persistent atmospheric circulation anomalies and have huge economic and social implications in terms of increased flooding.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Geophysical Research Letters

Year: 2003

Volume: 30

Issue: 13

Pages: 1720

Print publication date: 15/07/2003

Date deposited: 08/04/2010

ISSN (print): 0094-8276

Publisher: American Geophysical Union

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017327

DOI: 10.1029/2003GL017327

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