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Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Hayley Fowler, Professor Chris Kilsby, Professor Enda O'Connell



During the last decade there have been increasing concerns over water resource drought in northern England, brought about by the 1995 Yorkshire drought with an estimated 5-month rainfall return period of 200 years. The impacts of climatic change and variability on water resource reliability, resilience and vulnerability in this region are examined by modeling changes to weather type frequency, mean rainfall statistics and potential evapotranspiration. Results indicate future improvements in water resource reliability due to increased winter rainfall, but reductions in resource resilience and an increased vulnerability to drought. Severe droughts comparable to that of 1995 show only a slight increase in frequency by 2080. However, there are significant increases in both the magnitude and duration of severe water resource drought, as a consequence of summer rainfall reductions and increased climatic variability. This research provides a basis for the future planning and management of the Yorkshire water resource system.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, O'Connell PE

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Water Resources Research

Year: 2003

Volume: 39

Issue: 8

Pages: 1222

Print publication date: 01/08/2003

Date deposited: 16/06/2010

ISSN (print): 0043-1397

ISSN (electronic): 1944-7973

Publisher: American Geophysical Union


DOI: 10.1029/2002WR001778


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