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Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework-Applications in the water sector

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Hayley Fowler

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Abstract

Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Ekstrom M, Kuruppu N, Wilby RL, Fowler HJ, Chiew FHS, Dessai S, Young WJ

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Global Environmental Change

Year: 2013

Volume: 23

Issue: 1

Pages: 115-129

Print publication date: 01/02/2013

ISSN (print): 0959-3780

ISSN (electronic):

Publisher: Pergamon

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.003

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.003

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