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Projected increases in summer and winter UK sub-daily precipitation extremes from high-resolution regional climate models

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Steven ChanORCiD, Professor Hayley Fowler, Dr Stephen Blenkinsop



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


Summer (June-July-August; JJA) UK precipitation extremes projections from two UK Met Office high-resolution (12 km and 1.5 km) regional climate models (RCMs) are shown to be resolution dependent. The 1.5 km RCM projects a uniform (approximate to 10%) increase in 1 h JJA precipitation intensities across a range of return periods. The 12 km RCM, in contrast, projects decreases in short return period (<= 5 years) events but strong increases in long return period (>= 20 years) events. We have low physical and statistical confidence in the 12 km RCM projections for longer return periods. Both models show evidence for longer dry periods between events. In winter (December-January-February; DJF), the models show larger return level increases (>= 40%). Both DJF projections are consistent with results from previous work based on coarser resolution models.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Roberts NM

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Environmental Research Letters

Year: 2014

Volume: 9

Issue: 8

Print publication date: 01/09/2014

Online publication date: 26/08/2014

Acceptance date: 08/05/2014

Date deposited: 19/08/2016

ISSN (electronic): 1748-9326

Publisher: IOP Publishing


DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084019


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Funder referenceFunder name
European Research Council
United Kingdom National Environmental Research Council
Joint Department of Energy and Climate Change
GA01101Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme