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Projected increases in summer and winter UK sub-daily precipitation extremes from high-resolution regional climate models

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Steven ChanORCiD, Professor Hayley Fowler, Dr Stephen Blenkinsop

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).

Abstract

Summer (June-July-August; JJA) UK precipitation extremes projections from two UK Met Office high-resolution (12 km and 1.5 km) regional climate models (RCMs) are shown to be resolution dependent. The 1.5 km RCM projects a uniform (approximate to 10%) increase in 1 h JJA precipitation intensities across a range of return periods. The 12 km RCM, in contrast, projects decreases in short return period (<= 5 years) events but strong increases in long return period (>= 20 years) events. We have low physical and statistical confidence in the 12 km RCM projections for longer return periods. Both models show evidence for longer dry periods between events. In winter (December-January-February; DJF), the models show larger return level increases (>= 40%). Both DJF projections are consistent with results from previous work based on coarser resolution models.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Roberts NM

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Environmental Research Letters

Year: 2014

Volume: 9

Issue: 8

Print publication date: 01/09/2014

Online publication date: 26/08/2014

Acceptance date: 08/05/2014

Date deposited: 19/08/2016

ISSN (electronic): 1748-9326

Publisher: IOP Publishing

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084019

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084019

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