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Lookup NU author(s): Professor Giorgio Fazio
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND).
Historical data for over hundred years and 14 countries is used to estimate the long-run effect of productivity on the real exchange rate. We find large variations in the productivity effect across four distinct monetary regimes in the sample period. Although the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model is not consistent with these results, we suggest an explanation of the results in terms of contemporary variants of the model that incorporate the terms of trade mechanism. Specifically we argue that changes in trade costs over time may affect the impact of productivity on the real exchange rate over time. We undertake simulations of the modern versions of the Balassa-Samuelson model to show that plausible parameter shifts consistent with the behavior of trade costs can explain the cross-regime variation of the productivity effect.
Author(s): Bordo M, Choudri E, Fazio G, MacDonald R
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance
Print publication date: 01/07/2017
Online publication date: 19/04/2017
Acceptance date: 31/03/2017
Date deposited: 08/06/2017
ISSN (print): 0261-5606
ISSN (electronic): 1873-0639
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