Lookup NU author(s): Dr Carlos Echevarria,
Professor John Simpson,
Emeritus Professor John Gibson,
Professor Stephen Bourke
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© 2017 Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. Background: One in three patients hospitalised due to acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) is readmitted within 90 days. No tool has been developed specifically in this population to predict readmission or death. Clinicians are unable to identify patients at particular risk, yet resources to prevent readmission are allocated based on clinical judgement. Methods: In participating hospitals, consecutive admissions of patients with AECOPD were identified by screening wards and reviewing coding records. A tool to predict 90-day readmission or death without readmission was developed in two hospitals (the derivation cohort) and validated in: (a) the same hospitals at a later timeframe (internal validation cohort) and (b) four further UK hospitals (external validation cohort). Performance was compared with ADO, BODEX, CODEX, DOSE and LACE scores. Results: Of 2417 patients, 936 were readmitted or died within 90 days of discharge. The five independent variables in the final model were: Previous admissions, eMRCD score, Age, Right-sided heart failure and Left-sided heart failure (PEARL). The PEARL score was consistently discriminative and accurate with a c-statistic of 0.73, 0.68 and 0.70 in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. Higher PEARL scores were associated with a shorter time to readmission. Conclusions: The PEARL score is a simple tool that can effectively stratify patients' risk of 90-day readmission or death, which could help guide readmission avoidance strategies within the clinical and research setting. It is superior to other scores that have been used in this population.
Author(s): Echevarria C, Steer J, Heslop-Marshall K, Stenton SC, Hickey PM, Hughes R, Wijesinghe M, Harrison RN, Steen N, Simpson AJ, Gibson GJ, Bourke SC
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Print publication date: 01/08/2017
Online publication date: 13/07/2017
Acceptance date: 17/01/2017
ISSN (print): 0040-6376
ISSN (electronic): 1468-3296
Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group
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