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Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Steven ChanORCiD, Professor Hayley Fowler



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


The UK Met Office has previously conducted convection-permitting climate simulations over the southern UK (Kendon et al. in Nat Clim Change 4:570–576, 2014). The southern UK simulations have been followed up by a new set of northern UK simulations using the same model configuration. Here we present the mean and extreme precipitation projections from these new simulations. Relative to the southern UK, the northern UK projections show a greater summertime increase of return levels and extreme precipitation intensity in both 1.5km convection-permitting and 12km convection-parameterised simulations, but this increase is against a backdrop of large decreases in summertime mean precipitation and precipitation frequency. Similar to the southern UK, projected change is model resolution dependent and the convection-permitting simulation projects a larger intensification. For winter, return level increases are somewhat lower than for the southern UK. Analysis of model biases highlight challenges in simulating the diurnal cycle over high terrain, sensitivity to domain size and driving-GCM biases, and quality issues of radar precipitation observations, which are relevant to the wider regional climate modelling community.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Chan SC, Kahana R, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Climate Dynamics

Year: 2018

Volume: 51

Issue: 9-10

Pages: 3559-3577

Print publication date: 01/11/2018

Online publication date: 14/03/2018

Acceptance date: 02/01/2018

Date deposited: 14/03/2018

ISSN (print): 0930-7575

ISSN (electronic): 1432-0894

Publisher: Springer


DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4096-4


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