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Lookup NU author(s): Nurten Akgun, Dr Dilum Dissanayake, Dr Neil Thorpe, Professor Margaret Carol Bell CBE
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND).
Introduction In general, priority junctions are converted into roundabouts to increase capacity and reduce vehicle accidents. However, previous research has indicated that roundabouts are dangerous for vulnerable users, especially cyclists. Method This paper investigates which design factors influence cyclist casualty severity at give way (non-signalised) roundabouts with mixed traffic, using the UK STATS19 National dataset of cyclist casualties. First, the correlation matrix was generated to observe the relationship between variables. Second, dimension reduction was applied to geometric design variables in order to reduce the number of variables and generate the factors. Finally, the binary logistic regression method, with serious and slight casualties as dependent variables, was applied in three steps. The first Binary Logistic Regression Model (BLRM) included speed limit, sociodemographic and meteorological conditions. The variables in the second BLRM consisted of geometric design variables. The third BLRM included the factors which were generated by dimension reduction. Results The correlation matrix revealed that the approach number of lanes and approach half width were statistically significantly correlated, while the variables, such as geometric design (entry path radius, number of arms, approach number of flare lanes, type of roundabout and number of circulating lanes), sociodemographic (casualty gender and age), speed limit and meteorologically related factors (daylight, weather and road surface condition), did not show any statistical significance. From the dimension reduction process, two main factors were identified, including Approach Capacity (Factor 1) and Size of Roundabout (Factor 2), and they were subsequently used as independent variables in the logistic regression analysis. The subsequent binary logistic regression models showed that a higher speed limit reduces the safety for cyclists at roundabouts. The probability of a serious casualty increases by approximately five times (odds ratio 4.97) for each additional number of approach lanes and by 4% (odds ratio 1.04) with a higher entry path radius. It was also found that Factor 2 (Approach Capacity) increases the casualty severity (odds ratio 1.86) for cyclists at roundabouts. Whilst this research has studied roundabouts in the UK, the methodological approach and statistical analysis techniques are applicable to other countries and the findings are likely to be of value to decision makers worldwide.
Author(s): Akgun N, Dissanayake D, Thorpe N, Bell MC
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Journal of Safety Research
Year: 2018
Volume: 67
Pages: 83-91
Print publication date: 01/12/2018
Online publication date: 25/09/2018
Acceptance date: 17/09/2018
Date deposited: 22/11/2018
ISSN (print): 0022-4375
ISSN (electronic): 1879-1247
Publisher: Pergamon Press
URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2018.09.004
DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2018.09.004
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