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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Sara Graziadio, Rachel O'Leary, Dr Deborah Stocken, Dr Joy AllenORCiD, Professor John SimpsonORCiD, Dr David Price
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0).
© Author(s) 2018. Objective: To assess the value added to the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) by mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) blood level in predicting deterioration in mild to moderately ill people. Design Prospective observational study. Setting The Medical Admissions Suite of the Royal Victoria Infirmary, Newcastle. Participants 300 adults with NEWS between 2 and 5 on admission. Exclusion criteria included receiving palliative care, or admitted for social reasons or self-harming. Patients were enrolled between September and December 2015, and followed up for 30 days after discharge. Outcome measure The primary outcome measure was the proportion of patients who, within 72 hours, had an acuity increase, defined as any combination of an increase of at least 2 in the NEWS; transfer to a higher-dependency bed or monitored area; death; or for those discharged from hospital, readmission for medical reasons. Results NEWS and MR-proADM together predicted acuity increase more accurately than NEWS alone, increasing the area under the curve (AUC) to 0.61 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.69) from 0.55 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.62). When the confounding effects of presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or heart failure and interaction with MR-proADM were included, the prognostic accuracy further increased the AUC to 0.69 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.76). Conclusions MR-proADM is potentially a clinically useful biomarker for deterioration in patients admitted to hospital with a mild to moderately severe acute illness, that is, with NEWS between 2 and 5. As a growing number of National Health Service hospitals are routinely recording the NEWS on their clinical information systems, further research should assess the practicality and use of developing a decision aid based on admission NEWS, MR-proADM level, and possibly other clinical data and other biomarkers that could further improve prognostic accuracy.
Author(s): Graziadio S, O'Leary RA, Stocken DD, Power M, Allen AJ, Simpson AJ, Price DA
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: BMJ Open
Year: 2018
Volume: 8
Issue: 11
Online publication date: 02/12/2018
Acceptance date: 08/10/2018
Date deposited: 18/12/2018
ISSN (electronic): 2044-6055
Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group
URL: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020337
DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020337
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