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Heterogeneity in departure time preferences, flexibility and schedule constraints

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Elisabetta Cherchi

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This is the authors' accepted manuscript of an article that has been published in its final definitive form by Springer Nature, 2021.

For re-use rights please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.


Abstract

© 2020, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature. This study develops a latent class choice model of departure time preferences for morning commute trips by car. The model is empirically evaluated using a sample of car commuters (mainly) in the Greater Copenhagen region in Denmark. The model identifies three classes that differ in terms of their preferences for departure times, their schedule constraints and degree of flexibility, and their socio-demographics characteristics. Roughly 30% of the sample exhibits high flexibility and is quite willing to reschedule in response to ‘peak spreading’ travel demand management strategies; 50% of the sample is constrained in the afternoon and evening, and consequently, less responsive to these strategies; and 20% of the sample is constrained in the morning and afternoons, and least likely to reschedule. We demonstrate the value of our model framework for policy analysis over simpler choice model frameworks that do not explicitly account for the existence of population segments with distinct preferences for departure time behaviour. In particular, we demonstrate how forecasts from our model may differ substantially from corresponding forecasts from more conventional choice models.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Thorhauge M, Vij A, Cherchi E

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Transportation

Year: 2021

Volume: 48

Pages: 1865-1893

Print publication date: 01/08/2021

Online publication date: 24/05/2020

Acceptance date: 02/04/2018

Date deposited: 06/08/2020

ISSN (print): 0049-4488

ISSN (electronic): 1572-9435

Publisher: Springer Nature

URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-020-10114-y

DOI: 10.1007/s11116-020-10114-y


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