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Estimating the impact of the first COVID-19 lockdown on UK food retailers and the restaurant sector

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Luca Panzone



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND).


© 2021 Elsevier B.V.Using an approach normally used to estimate cumulative excess deaths, we measure the impact of the COVID-19 shock on sales of UK food retailers and restaurants. To control the spread of COVID-19, travel and social interactions were restricted, putting significant pressure on retailers, who had to adapt whilst complying with a fast-changing marketplace. Results show that in the period March–August 2020, COVID-19 restrictions accounted for a £4 billion increase in sales for food retailers, and £4 billion in non-store retailers; and a £20 billion loss in sales in non-food stores, and £25 billion loss in turnover for food and beverage serving services.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Panzone LA, Larcom S, She P-W

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Global Food Security

Year: 2021

Volume: 28

Print publication date: 01/03/2021

Online publication date: 21/01/2021

Acceptance date: 15/01/2021

Date deposited: 17/03/2021

ISSN (print): 2211-9124

Publisher: Elsevier B.V.


DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100495


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