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Lookup NU author(s): Professor Hayley Fowler
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The UK Climate Change Act requires the Environment Agency to report the risks it faces from climate change and actions taken to address these. Derived information from projections is critical to understanding likely impacts in water management. In 2019, the UK published an ensemble of high-resolution model simulations. The UKCP Local (2.2 km) projections can resolve smaller scale physical processes that determine rainfall and other variables at subdaily time-scales with the potential to provide new insights into extreme events, storm runoff and drainage management. However, simulations also need to inform adaptation. The challenge ahead is to identify and provide derived products without the need for further analysis by decision-makers. These include a wider evaluation of uncertainty, narratives about rainfall change across the projections and bias-corrected datasets. Future flood maps, peak rainfall estimates, uplift factors and future design storm profiles also need detailed guidance to support their use. Central government support is justified in the provision of up-to-date impacts information to inform flood risk management, given the large risks and exposure of all sectors. The further development of projections would benefit from greater focus and earlier scoping with industry representatives, operational tool developers and end users. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.
Author(s): Orr HG, Ekstrom M, Charlton MB, Peat KL, Fowler HJ
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Year: 2021
Volume: 379
Issue: 2195
Print publication date: 19/04/2021
Online publication date: 01/03/2021
Acceptance date: 08/10/2020
ISSN (print): 1364-503X
ISSN (electronic): 1471-2962
Publisher: Royal Society Publishing
URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2020.0219
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2020.0219
PubMed id: 33641469
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