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Consequence forecasting: A rational framework for predicting the consequences of approaching storms

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Sean Wilkinson, Dr Sarah Dunn, Dr Russell Adams, Dr Nicolas Kirchner Bossi, Professor Hayley Fowler, Samuel Gonzalez Otalora, Dr David Pritchard, Dr Steven ChanORCiD

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND).


Abstract

© 2022. As our climate continues to respond to anthropogenic forcing, the magnitude and frequency of individual weather events and the intensity of the weather extremes associated with these, remains highly uncertain. This is a particular concern for our infrastructure networks, as increasing storm-related damage to these vital lifelines has significant consequences for our communities. Effective first response is hence becoming an increasingly important part of the management of infrastructure systems. Here, we propose a novel and rational framework for ‘consequence forecasting’ that enables probabilistic, pre-event decision-making for first responders to effectively target resources prior to an extreme weather event and thus reduce the societal consequences. Our method is unique in that it minimises model bias by using the same numerical weather prediction model for both fault attribution and fault prediction. Our framework can predict failure rates that are within 50% of the true value for more than 50% of the events considered, some 24 h in advance, therefore demonstrating that it can be an important part of increasing societal climate resilience by reducing reinstatement times.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Wilkinson S, Dunn S, Adams R, Kirchner-Bossi N, Fowler HJ, Gonzalez Otalora S, Pritchard D, Mendes J, Palin EJ, Chan SC

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Climate Risk Management

Year: 2022

Volume: 35

Online publication date: 05/02/2022

Acceptance date: 02/02/2022

Date deposited: 10/03/2022

ISSN (electronic): 2212-0963

Publisher: Elsevier B.V.

URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100412

DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100412


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Funding

Funder referenceFunder name
NE/N012992/1Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)

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