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Lookup NU author(s): Professor Hayley Fowler
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© 2023, The Author(s).The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile can help alleviate some of these stressors and tensions. Here we present a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.
Author(s): Basheer M, Nechifor V, Calzadilla A, Gebrechorkos S, Pritchard D, Forsythe N, Gonzalez JM, Sheffield J, Fowler HJ, Harou JJ
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Nature Climate Change
Year: 2023
Volume: 13
Pages: 48-57
Print publication date: 09/01/2023
Online publication date: 09/01/2023
Acceptance date: 10/11/2022
Date deposited: 16/01/2023
ISSN (print): 1758-678X
ISSN (electronic): 1758-6798
Publisher: Nature Research
URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6
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