Browse by author
Lookup NU author(s): Dr Liam Lachs, Dr Peter Mumby, Professor John BythellORCiD, Dr Adriana Humanes Schumann, Dr James Guest
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© 2023, Springer Nature Limited. Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs.
Author(s): Lachs L, Donner SD, Mumby PJ, Bythell JC, Humanes A, East HK, Guest JR
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Nature Communications
Year: 2023
Volume: 14
Issue: 1
Online publication date: 22/08/2023
Acceptance date: 01/08/2023
Date deposited: 13/09/2023
ISSN (electronic): 2041-1723
Publisher: Springer Nature
URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40601-6
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40601-6
Data Access Statement: All original data has been deposited on Figshare at https://doi.org/10.25405/data.ncl.2198248464. The land mask for maps in this study were based on the NOAA National Centre for Coastal Ocean Science Data Collection, and the coral reef mask used was from the United Nations global distribution of coral reefs. All datasets analysed are publicly available as of the date of publication. Source data are provided with this paper. All original R code (version 4.0.2) used for data analysis is available at https://doi.org/10.25405/data.ncl.2198248464. Contained in the repository is sufficient data and code to reproduce all analyses in the study, however, any further guidance or additional information required is available from the lead contact upon request (e.g., downloading software/packages etc.).
PubMed id: 37607913
Altmetrics provided by Altmetric
