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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Haider Ali, Professor Hayley Fowler
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© 2023. The Authors. Understanding climate change impacts on Tropical Storm (TS) activity is crucial for effective adaptation planning and risk assessment, particularly in densely populated low-lying delta rivers basins like the Ganges and Mekong. The change to TS characteristics with warming is uncertain due to limitations in global climate model resolution and process-representation and storm tracking algorithms (trackers). Here, we used 13 HighResMIP models and two trackers to estimate the uncertainty in projections of TS characteristics. We found different trackers producing qualitatively similar but quantitatively different results. Our results show a decline (median ∼52%) in the frequency of TS but increase in the strongest TS and Available Cyclone Energy (ACE) of TS over both basins. The higher-resolution models extract TS with much higher intensity and ACE values compared to the lower-resolution models. These results have implications for adaptation planning and risk assessment for TS and suggest the need for further high-resolution modeling studies.
Author(s): Ali H, Fowler HJ, Vanniere B, Roberts MJ
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Year: 2023
Volume: 50
Issue: 17
Print publication date: 16/09/2023
Online publication date: 31/08/2023
Acceptance date: 10/07/2023
Date deposited: 13/09/2023
ISSN (print): 0094-8276
ISSN (electronic): 1944-8007
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc.
URL: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104973
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL104973
Data Access Statement: This article draws on data that will be made available via Newcastle University's Research Repository (https://data.ncl.ac.uk/). The data will be available from March 2025 onwards, as part of the data generated by the GCRF UKRI-funded Living Deltas Hub (2019–2024) under Grant Reference NE/S008926/1. https://doi.org/10.25405/data.ncl.c.6288033.v1.
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