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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Peter Helm
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This report summarises the deterministic numerical modelling used to compare rates of deterioration of cut slopes subjected to climate change. In order to assess the effects of climate change on deterioration it was necessary to derive both control (present) and future climate datasets using the UKCP09 weather generator and the UKCP18 regional climate model output respectively. These datasets were then used to produce a discharge boundary flux for a validated geotechnical model of a cut slope, excavated in high plasticity overconsolidated clay with properties representative of London Clay. Slope deterioration was evaluated in terms of a change in the factor of safety (FoS) against ultimate limit state failure over time. This deterioration was caused by the dissipation of excavation induced negative pore water pressures and due to strain softening driven by progressive failure and shrink‐swell cycles within the model. The change in FoS over time, for the differing models, was plotted as a series of deterioration curves and the time to failure of the models subjected to differing climates was recorded. The difference in the times to failure, for the control and future climate models, was in turn used to derive a deterioration factor due to climate change. The results suggest that on average, for the cut slopes modelled, future climate change based on UKCP18 RCP8.5 (the projected worst‐case emissions scenario), will lead to a doubling of the rate of deterioration of the slopes towards ultimate limit state failure. This work informed the report: National Highways Geotechnical Asset Performance: Deterioration Modelling for Decision Support (SPaTS Task 1-1061).
Author(s): Helm P
Publication type: Report
Publication status: Published
Series Title:
Year: 2022
Pages: 29
Print publication date: 01/04/2022
Online publication date: 03/03/2024
Acceptance date: 01/04/2022
Report Number: SaM‐Ext‐1.1‐Apr‐2022
Institution: Newcastle University
Place Published: Newcastle upon Tyne
URL: https://doi.org/10.25405/data.ncl.19619613
DOI: 10.25405/data.ncl.19619613
