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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Abdullah KahramanORCiD, Professor Hayley Fowler
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© Crown and The Author(s) 2024 2024.We present a new approach to identify severe hailstorms in a convection-permitting climate model, and build a climatology of severe hail potential in Europe using an ingredients-based approach based on a 20-year long hindcast simulation. Severe hail in Europe occurs mostly in southern regions (up to 40 times a year per 10,000 km2 around Northern Italy), and from May to August. It peaks from afternoon to evening hours on land, whilst sea areas are prone to hail at any time of the day. The Mediterranean Sea experiences severe hailstorms mostly in autumn: the central Mediterranean has the highest frequency among all regions studied, and may be considered as an unknown alley for hailstorms in Europe. Results derived from the high-resolution model are in very good agreement with existing hail climatologies constructed from observations, including the fine scale spatial variation. We conclude that our approach provides a reliable proxy for studying future changes in severe hail in convection-permitting simulations.
Author(s): Kahraman A, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Climate Dynamics
Year: 2024
Volume: 62
Pages: 6625-6642
Online publication date: 18/05/2024
Acceptance date: 31/03/2024
Date deposited: 28/05/2024
ISSN (print): 0930-7575
ISSN (electronic): 1432-0894
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07227-w
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07227-w
Data Access Statement: European 2.2 km model dataset can be used under licence from the Met Office, but restrictions to the use apply, and must respect the work plans of EUCP project partners and of CORDEX-FPS-Convection. ESWD data is available from ESSL (www.eswd.eu).
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