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Life expectancy gains from dietary modifications: a comparative modeling study in 7 countries

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Carlos Celis Morales, Dr Katherine Livingstone, Professor John Mathers

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


Abstract

© 2024 The Author(s). Background: Eating healthier is associated with a range of favorable health outcomes. Our previous model estimated the impact of dietary changes on life expectancy gains but did not consider height, weight, or physical activity. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the increase in life expectancy resulting from the transition from typical national dietary patterns to longevity-optimizing dietary changes, more feasible dietary modifications, and optimized vegan dietary changes in China, France, Germany, Iran, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Methods: Our modeling study used data from meta-analyses presenting dose-response relationships between intake of 15 food groups and mortality. Background mortality data were from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We used national food intake data and adjusted for height, weight, and physical activity level. Results: For 40-y-olds, estimated life expectancy gains ranged from 6.2 y (with uncertainty interval [UI]: 5.7, 7.5 y) for Chinese females to 9.7 y (UI: 8.1, 11.3 y) for United States males following sustained changes from typical country-specific dietary patterns to longevity-optimized dietary changes, and from 5.2 y (UI: 4.0, 6.5 y) for Chinese females to 8.7 y (UI: 7.1, 10.3 y) for United States males following changes to optimized vegan dietary changes. Conclusions: A sustained change from country-specific typical dietary pattern patterns to longevity-optimized dietary changes, more feasible dietary changes, or optimized vegan dietary changes are all projected to result in substantial life expectancy gains across ages and countries. These changes included more whole grains, legumes, and nuts and less red/processed meats and sugars and sugar-sweetened beverages. The largest gains from dietary changes would be in the United States.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Fadnes LT, Javadi Arjmand E, Okland J-M, Celis-Morales C, Livingstone KM, Balakrishna R, Mathers JC, Johansson KA, Haaland OA

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition

Year: 2024

Volume: 120

Issue: 1

Pages: 170-177

Print publication date: 01/07/2024

Online publication date: 29/04/2024

Acceptance date: 24/04/2024

Date deposited: 04/06/2024

ISSN (print): 0002-9165

ISSN (electronic): 1938-3207

Publisher: Elsevier BV

URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajcnut.2024.04.028

DOI: 10.1016/j.ajcnut.2024.04.028

Data Access Statement: The data used in this study are available through various online sources (see Supplementary data and references for a range of sources).

PubMed id: 38692410

Notes: See Corrigendum https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajcnut.2024.08.005


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Funding

Funder referenceFunder name
Trond Mohn foundation
TMS2019TMT02

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