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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Anna Whitford, Dr Stephen Blenkinsop, Professor Hayley Fowler
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© The Author(s) 2024.Large-scale atmospheric circulations are a significant driver of rainfall extremes. However, little attention has so far been devoted to understanding how large-scale circulation patterns influence sub-daily rainfall extremes. Using a gauge-based sub-daily rainfall dataset, we investigate the relationship between large-scale circulations and 3-hour extremes (defined here as ≥ 40 mm rainfall in 3 h) for western Europe. A set of 30 weather patterns (WPs) developed by the UK Met Office and reanalysis data of geopotential height at 500 hPa (z500) are used to represent large-scale atmospheric conditions. Strong associations with 3-hour extremes are found for a small number of WPs: over 50% of 3-hour rainfall extremes across Western Europe occur with just 5 WPs. Composites of z500 reveal the WPs resulting in southerly or south-westerly flow along the leading edge of a trough, accompanied by a ridge to the east or northeast, are most favourable for sub-daily rainfall extremes, with a statistically significant difference between the atmospheric conditions on WP days with a 3-hour extreme rainfall event compared to WP non-event days. Given that large-scale circulations are predictable much further in advance than individual extreme rainfall events, these identified relationships could therefore have important implications for forecasting, aiding in the early identification of periods with increased risk of short-duration rainfall extremes.
Author(s): Whitford AC, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Climate Dynamics
Year: 2024
Volume: 62
Pages: 10131-10152
Online publication date: 24/09/2024
Acceptance date: 04/09/2024
Date deposited: 07/10/2024
ISSN (print): 0930-7575
ISSN (electronic): 1432-0894
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07440-7
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07440-7
Data Access Statement: The datasets generated and/or analysed during the current study are not publicly available but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable reques
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