Browse by author
Lookup NU author(s): Dr Colin Manning, Professor Sean WilkinsonORCiD, Professor Hayley Fowler
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© The Author(s) 2025. Windstorms are the main cause of large power outages in the United Kingdom, primarily through windthrow (the uprooting or breakage of trees by winds that then fall on overhead lines). Future risk assessments of power outages focus on wind speed alone, ignoring potential contributions of windthrow such as antecedent rainfall, wind direction, and seasonal factors (leaf cover). Here, using power outage data in the United Kingdom for 2006–2018, we demonstrate that ignoring these additional contributions to windthrow can result in a 2- to 5-fold underestimation in the probability of large power outages during windstorms. Furthermore, incorporating these variables within a statistical model alongside wind speed significantly improves the predictive skill of power outages during windstorms compared to a model that only includes wind speed. Results highlight the need to include multivariate effects in climate risk assessments to guide resilience planning and manage the changing risks due to climate change.
Author(s): Manning C, Wilkinson S, Fowler HJ, Kendon EJ
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Communications Earth and Environment
Year: 2025
Volume: 6
Online publication date: 26/03/2025
Acceptance date: 28/02/2025
Date deposited: 07/04/2025
ISSN (electronic): 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Nature
URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02176-6
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02176-6
Data Access Statement: ERA5 meteorological data is freely available to download from the ECMWF49 (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=download). Power outage data reported to NaFIRS are proprietary and cannot be made publicly available by the authors. For more information about NaFIRS, refer to the Ofgem guidance52 (https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/2020/04/riio-ed1_regulatory_instructions_and_guidance_annex_f_-_interruptions.pd).
Altmetrics provided by Altmetric
