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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Abdullah KahramanORCiD, Professor Hayley Fowler
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Hail is a major threat to agriculture, properties, and people, yet little is knownabout changes to hail with anthropogenic warming. Here, we use pan-European convection-permitting simulations, and a contemporary hail proxybenefiting from simulated thunderstormfeatures, and show that the potentialfor severe hail decreases under RCP8.5, except potentially for very large hail.This is despite an increase in the number of convective storms producingmany small ice particles functioning as hail embryos. The decrease in severehail potential is partly due to hail forming at higher altitudes as the atmospherewarms, which impacts both the updraft strength in the hail growth layer andthe extent to which hail melts before reaching the surface. Our results contradictthose from coarser resolution models which typically project futureincreases in hail frequency, estimated using environmental proxies. However,we find that future warm seasons feature a warmer thunderstorm type akin tohail-producing storms found in the tropics, where the largest hailstones canstill reach the surface as evidenced from observations. In the future, thesestorms are most frequent over southern Europe, leading to regional increasesin severe hail frequency.Weconclude that societymay need to be prepared for(infrequent but) more impactful hail in a future warmer world.
Author(s): Kahraman A, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Short CJ
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Nature Communications
Year: 2025
Volume: 16
Pages: 1-14
Online publication date: 26/09/2025
Acceptance date: 31/07/2025
ISSN (electronic): 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62780-0
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62780-0
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