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Amplification of ENSO’s influence on the atmospheric circulation over Western Tibetan Plateau in autumn during 1948–2021

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Hayley Fowler

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Abstract

© 2026 Elsevier B.V.As the major natural interannual variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been documented to significantly modulate the year-to-year variability of the atmospheric circulation over the western Tibetan Plateau (TP) in autumn. In this study, we further report that the influence of ENSO on the western TP's atmospheric circulation is strengthening in recent decades. This is indicated by the fact that the negative correlation between the year-to-year intensity variabilities of ENSO and the leading circulation variability over the western TP—Western Tibetan Vortex (WTV)—has strengthened at −0.06 per decade since the 1960s. We identify the more pronounced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical western Pacific (TWP) associated with ENSO variability in recent decades, compared to previous decades, as the primary driver. To demonstrate the key role played by these TWP SST anomalies, we conduct SST forcing experiments using CAM4 model. In experiments prescribed with full Indo-Pacific or only TWP SSTs associated with recent ENSO events, the significant impact of ENSO on the WTV is reproduced well. In contrast, if we prescribe the same full Indo-Pacific SST forcing but mask the TWP SST anomalies, the experiment fails to reproduce the impacts of ENSO. We conclude that ENSO's impacts on the western TP atmospheric circulation is strengthening, which is mainly attributed to the more pronounced SST anomalies in the TWP associated with ENSO events in recent decades. This augments our understanding of thermodynamic coupling processes between the tropics and the Tibetan Plateau climate.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Jiang Y, Li X-F, Zhou X, Fowler HJ, Yang S

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Global and Planetary Change

Year: 2026

Volume: 261

Print publication date: 01/06/2026

Online publication date: 02/03/2026

Acceptance date: 24/02/2026

ISSN (print): 0921-8181

ISSN (electronic): 1872-6364

Publisher: Elsevier B.V.

URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105397

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105397

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