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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Liam LachsORCiD, Dr Adriana Humanes SchumannORCiD, Professor John BythellORCiD, Emeritus Professor Alasdair Edwards, Helios Martinez, Dr Eveline van der Steeg, John Stratford, Ruben De La Torre Cerro, Dr James GuestORCiD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© 2026 The Author(s).Marine heatwaves, exacerbated by climate change, are causing widespread coral mortality. Novel host-associated assisted evolution interventions, such as selective breeding, are now being considered to enhance coral heatwave tolerance and promote population persistence. Yet the evolutionary constraints associated with targeting different heat tolerance traits and the risks of unintended fitness costs remain uncertain. Here, we quantify key life history traits for Acropora aff . digitifera corals in a pedigree-tracked managed population. We find weak-to-moderate positive genetic correlations among coral’s tolerance to a 1-month 32.5°C heatwave and shorter acute exposures—1–2 weeks at 34.5°C and 6 days of 36°C daily pulses—suggesting a partially shared genetic architecture. However, photo-symbiont efficiency loss under a rapid heat shock assay (38.5°C) was genetically uncorrelated with bleaching and mortality-based heatwave tolerance, indicating that such widely used assays may not reliably identify tolerant coral genotypes for breeding and conservation. Encouragingly, we detected no genetically based trade-offs between heat tolerance and other fitness traits—reproduction, growth, tissue biomass, and symbiont flexibility—and a weak positive correlation with calcification. Evolutionary simulations show that achieving the tolerance levels required to withstand future heatwaves is theoretically possible but requires extremely strong selection, which introduces additional challenges and risks. Alongside rapid emissions reductions, reef management, and restoration interventions will need to carefully consider trait selection to fully harness the evolutionary potential of corals under climate change.
Author(s): Lachs L, Humanes A, Alessi C, Bukurrou A, Bythell JC, Cassidy D, Edwards AJ, Golbuu Y, Manuel L, Martinez HM, van der Steeg E, Stratford JE, de La Torre Cerro R, Wilson AJ, Guest JR
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Current Biology
Year: 2026
Pages: epub ahead of print
Online publication date: 17/04/2026
Acceptance date: 23/03/2026
Date deposited: 27/04/2026
ISSN (print): 0960-9822
ISSN (electronic): 1879-0445
Publisher: Cell Press
URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2026.03.055
DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2026.03.055
Data Access Statement: Sequence data have been deposited at NCBI as BioProject 864615 (accession number: PRJNA864615) and are publicly available as of the date of publication. • All other data supporting the findings of this study have been deposited and are publicly available as of the date of publication at Figshare: https://doi.org/10.25405/data.ncl.30196903. • All original code has been deposited and is publicly available at Figshare: https://doi.org/10.25405/data.ncl.30196903 as of the date of publication. • Any additional information required to reanalyze the data reported in this paper is available from the lead contact upon request.
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